2018-04-05

Background

Before there was Donald Trump there was Rob Ford….

Mayor Rob Ford

Background

Before there was Donald Trump there was Rob Ford….

Mayor Rob Ford

Background

Before there was Donald Trump there was Rob Ford…

Electoral support for mayor Rob Ford, 2010

Rob Ford as Populist

  • Strong connection with the people
  • Wealthy-ish businessman (inherited)
  • Shocking personal behaviour
  • Railed against the gravy train at city hall

Rob Ford and Ethnicity

  • ‘Those Oriental people work like dogs … they sleep beside their machines,’ he said. ‘The Oriental people, they’re slowly taking over … they’re hard, hard workers.’
  • Second incident in 2013 videotaped drunkenly imitating Jamaican Patois
  • ‘Nobody sticks up for people like I do, every f—ing k–e, n—-r, f—ing w-p, d-go, whatever the race. Nobody does. I’m the most racist guy around. I’m the mayor of Toronto.’

Literature on Rob Ford

  • Taylor (2011)
    • ecological inference using 2010 ward results
  • Toronto Election Study
    • McGregor, Moore, and Stephenson (2016)
    • Moore, McGregor, and Stephenson (2017)
    • Anderson et al. (2017)
    • Bird et al. (2016)
    • McGregor et al. (2017)

Dataset

  • Ontario General Election Survey
  • Online panel
  • June 2014, prior to reelection campaign, after scandals and controversies
  • Not a measure of who voted for Rob Ford

Economic Stress

  • Our question
    • ‘An extra $50 a month would make a big difference’
  • Canada Election Study
    • Over the past year, has your financial situation gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same

Economic Stress

  • Inglehart and Norris (2016)
    • Analysis of European Social Survey, support for right-wing populist parties
      • ‘Which of the descriptions on this card comes closest to how you feel about your household’s income nowadays’
      • Living comfortably on present income
      • Finding it very difficult on present income

Economic Stress

Ideational Models

Dependent variable:
Approval of Mayor Rob Ford
Econ. Ideol. Urban Combined
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Stress 1.153*** (0.203) 0.923*** (0.242)
Unemployment 0.081 (0.217) 0.145 (0.253)
Ideology 2.395*** (0.320) 2.161*** (0.327)
Religiosity 1.465*** (0.229) 1.246*** (0.237)
Partisanship 0.788*** (0.232) 0.860*** (0.239)
Car Owners 0.172 (0.185) 0.187 (0.213)
Commute Type 0.428** (0.168) 0.245 (0.192)
Commute Time -0.172 (0.597) -0.020 (0.661)
Suburban Resident 0.733*** (0.161) 0.295 (0.185)
Constant -1.426*** (0.128) -2.853*** (0.196) -1.584*** (0.185) -3.550*** (0.291)
Observations 962 962 962 962
Log Likelihood -569.315 -472.751 -565.166 -460.811
Akaike Inf. Crit. 1,144.631 953.502 1,140.333 941.623
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Sociological Model

Dependent variable:
Approval of Mayor Rob Ford
Socio-Demographics
Age -0.014** (0.006)
Male 0.765*** (0.158)
Less than HS -0.219 (0.530)
Post-Secondary -1.204*** (0.258)
Income -0.408 (0.336)
Property 0.020 (0.183)
Union Member -0.480** (0.205)
Canadian Born -0.416** (0.180)
Visible Minority 0.768*** (0.213)
Constant 1.826*** (0.634)
Observations 940
Log Likelihood -514.172
Akaike Inf. Crit. 1,056.345
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01
Variables measuring respondents’s religious affiliation are omitted for ease of interpretation. None are significant.

Integration

Dependent variable:
Approval of Mayor Rob Ford
Full Model
Stress 0.526* (0.279)
Unemployment 0.032 (0.272)
Ideology 2.057*** (0.353)
Religiosity 1.077*** (0.299)
Partisanship 1.103*** (0.260)
Car Owners 0.426* (0.245)
Commute Type 0.274 (0.212)
Commute Time -0.436 (0.760)
Suburban Resident 0.303 (0.200)
Age -0.020*** (0.007)
Male 0.479*** (0.183)
Less than HS -0.636 (0.571)
Post-Secondary -1.233*** (0.291)
Income -0.856** (0.429)
Property -0.257 (0.216)
Union Member -0.175 (0.237)
Canadian Born -0.436** (0.208)
Visible Minority 0.688*** (0.249)
Constant -0.431 (0.818)
Observations 940
Log Likelihood -416.540
Akaike Inf. Crit. 879.081
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01
Variables measuring respondents’s religious affiliation are omitted for ease of interpretation. None are significant.

Conclusions

  • right-wing populism that wins support amongs visible minorities
  • economics do matter, independently
  • Nature of the survey question matters
    • Different from standard egotropic retrospective question
    • Related to, but independent of, income
    • captures affect?
    • captures status competition?

Conclusions

  • Broader implications
    • Ford’s brother Doug currently leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative party
    • election scheduled on June 7th, 2018
    • Potential Government of Ontario based on race-ambivalent right-wing populism

References

Anderson, Cameron D., R. Michael McGregor, Aaron A. Moore, and Laura B. Stephenson. 2017. “Economic Voting and Multilevel Governance: The Case of Toronto.” Urban Affairs Review 53 (1):71–101.

Bird, Karen, Samantha D. Jackson, R. Michael McGregor, Aaron A. Moore, and Laura B. Stephenson. 2016. “Sex (and Ethnicity) in the City: Affinity Voting in the 2014 Toronto Mayoral Election.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 49 (02):359–83. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423916000536.

Inglehart, Ronald, and Pippa Norris. 2016. “Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash.” SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 2818659. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2818659.

McGregor, R. Michael, Aaron A. Moore, and Laura B. Stephenson. 2016. “Political Attitudes and Behaviour in a Non-Partisan Environment: Toronto 2014.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 49 (02):311–33. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423916000573.

McGregor, R. Michael, Aaron Moore, Samantha Jackson, Karen Bird, and Laura B. Stephenson. 2017. “Why so Few Women and Minorities in Local Politics?: Incumbency and Affinity Voting in Low Information Elections.” Representation 53 (2):135–52. https://doi.org/10.1080/00344893.2017.1354909.

Moore, Aaron A., R. Michael McGregor, and Laura B. Stephenson. 2017. “Paying Attention and the Incumbency Effect: Voting Behavior in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election.” International Political Science Review 38 (1):85–98.

Taylor, Zack. 2011. “Who Elected Rob Ford, and Why? An Ecological Analysis of the 2010 Toronto Election.” In Conference Paper, Waterloo: Canadian Political Science Association.