Publications
Matthew Polacko, Peter Graefe & Simon Kiss
Canadian Review of Sociology = Revue Canadienne De Sociologie
Canadian Review of Sociology = Revue Canadienne De Sociologie
Public Opinion
Social Democracy
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According to the budget-maximizing bureaucrat model, public sector employees should rationally seek to increase government budgets to increase their own power. In contrast to most advanced democracies, class and sectoral voting has largely been neglected in Canada. The ideological and voting preferences of the public sector has been unexamined since the 1980s. Using the Canadian Election Study (1968–2019), we revisit and expand on this literature. We find that the public sector holds more economically leftist attitudes than the public and that a sectoral cleavage has emerged, with public sector employees increasingly supporting the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP). We also find that social class moderates these two relationships, as professionals and managers in the public sector are significantly more likely to vote for the NDP and hold more leftist economic attitudes than their counterparts in both the private sector, and the routine non-manual and working class in the public sector.
@article{polackoRevisitingSectoralCleavage2025,
title = {Revisiting the {{Sectoral Cleavage}} in {{Canada}}: {{Evidence From}} the {{Canadian Election Studies}}},
author = {Matthew Polacko and Peter Graefe and Simon Kiss},
doi = {10.1111/cars.70014},
year = {2025},
month = {aug}
}
Matthew Polacko, Peter Graefe & Simon Kiss
Social Science Quarterly
Social Science Quarterly
Public Opinion
Social Democracy
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The recent success of far-right populism has led to a wave of public attention to its causes. Drawing on novel survey items from the Canadian Election Study, we investigate how economic insecurity, mediated by immigration and feminist attitudes, affects voting behavior. While economic distress has been linked to far-right voting in Europe, we find support that subjective measures of economic distress are significantly associated with voting for the Right in Canada, when interacting with immigration and feminist attitudes. However, the association only holds for men. The findings suggest that Canada, despite its comparatively weak nativist cleavage, is not immune to tensions arising from globalization and economic insecurity.
@article{polackoSubjectiveEconomicInsecurity2024,
title = {Subjective {{Economic Insecurity}} and {{Attitudes Toward Immigration}} and {{Feminists Among Voters}} on the {{Right}} in {{Canada}}},
author = {Matthew Polacko and Peter Graefe and Simon Kiss},
volume = {105},
number = {2},
pages = {281--295},
doi = {10.1111/ssqu.13336},
url = {https://sjkiss.github.io/publication/subjective_economic_insecurity/subjective_economic_insecurity.pdf},
year = {2024},
month = {jan},
note = {Last visited on 03/28/2024}
}
The Education And Income Voting Divides In Canada And Their Consequences For Redistributive Politics
Simon Kiss, Peter Graefe & Matt Polacko
Electoral Studies
Electoral Studies
Public Opinion
Social Democracy
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Profound changes in the nature of class cleavages in advanced capitalist economies have been documented in recent years. Some have posited that the increasingly educated nature of left electorates has weakened impulses for redistribution. In contrast to most advanced democracies, class voting has largely been neglected in Canada, as it has traditionally been viewed as being comparatively weak in the face of strong linguistic, regional, and religious identities. Using the entire series of the Canadian Election Study (1965–2019) we examine the education and income political divides in Canada. We find strong support for a divergence between the effect that income and education have on party voting, as people with high incomes continue to vote for the right, while people with higher levels of education have shifted significantly to the left. However, we also find a strengthening income cleavage, whereby lower-income individuals are increasingly supporting the social democratic New Democratic Party, with redistribution a key driver. The findings reveal that Canada, despite a strengthening class cleavage, largely fits the mould of a multi-elite party system. However, it does so in a distinct fashion from the party systems previously examined in the cleavage literature.
@article{kissEducationIncomeVoting2023,
title = {The {{Education And Income Voting Divides In Canada And Their Consequences For Redistributive Politics}}},
author = {Simon Kiss and Peter Graefe and Matt Polacko},
volume = {85},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102648},
year = {2023},
month = {oct}
}
Matthew Polacko, Simon Kiss & Peter Graefe
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique
Public Opinion
Social Democracy
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Much attention has been paid to the changing class cleavage that structured political conflict in the twentieth century. In contrast to most advanced democracies, class voting has traditionally been weak in Canada. Using the entire series of the Canadian Election Study (1965–2019), we find the historic pattern of working-class voting for the New Democratic Party (NDP) held outside of Quebec in recent elections, before suddenly falling off in 2019. Starting in 2004, we find a clear and distinct trend where the working class has increased its support for the Conservatives. Although greater partisan sorting is occurring over the economy, cultural issues such as moral traditionalism and anti-immigration are now significant drivers of working-class Conservative support. The findings carry important implications for class-party relationships and reveal that Canada, despite its comparatively weak nativist cleavage, is not immune from the tensions social democratic parties have recently experienced in maintaining cross-class coalitions amid socio-economic structural changes. , Résumé On a accordé beaucoup d'attention à l'évolution du clivage de classe qui a structuré les conflits politiques au cours du vingtième siècle. Contrairement à la plupart des démocraties avancées, le vote de classe a traditionnellement été faible au Canada. En utilisant la série complète de l'Étude sur l'élection canadienne (1965-2019), nous trouvons le modèle historique du vote de la classe ouvrière pour le NPD, qui s'est maintenu en dehors du Québec lors des dernières élections, avant de chuter soudainement en 2019. À partir de 2004, nous trouvons une tendance claire et distincte dans laquelle la classe ouvrière a augmenté son soutien aux conservateurs. Bien qu'un plus grand tri partisan se produise sur l'économie, les questions culturelles telles que le traditionalisme moral et l'anti-immigration sont maintenant des moteurs importants du soutien de la classe ouvrière au Parti conservateur. Les résultats ont des implications importantes pour les relations entre les classes et les partis et révèlent que le Canada, malgré son clivage nativiste relativement faible, n'est pas à l'abri des tensions que les partis sociaux-démocrates ont récemment connues pour maintenir des coalitions interclasses dans un contexte de changements structurels socio-économiques.
@article{polackoChangingNatureClass2022,
title = {The {{Changing Nature}} of {{Class Voting}} in {{Canada}}, 1965–2019},
author = {Matthew Polacko and Simon Kiss and Peter Graefe},
volume = {55},
number = {3},
pages = {663--686},
doi = {10.1017/S0008423922000439},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-science-politique/article/changing-nature-of-class-voting-in-canada-19652019/FA5E431D849C30B9E531EC046A6107B6},
year = {2022},
month = {sep},
note = {Last visited on 02/25/2025}
}
Simon Kiss, Erick Lachapelle & Eric Montpetit
Canadian Journal of Political Science / Revue canadienne de science politique
Canadian Journal of Political Science / Revue canadienne de science politique
Public Opinion
Risk
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Cultural theory (CT) has been widely used to explain variations in risk perception but has rarely been tested in Canada. This contribution represents the most thorough attempt to adapt CT to the Canadian context. Study results suggest that respondents’ commitment to egalitarianism was strongly correlated with risks from technology, while respondents’ commitment to hierarchism was strongly correlated with risks from criminal or unsafe behaviours. Respondents’ commitment to individualism was also correlated with risks from criminal and unsafe behaviours but differed from hierarchism in that individualism was not correlated with risk perceptions from prostitution and marijuana use. Respondents’ commitments to fatalism were strongly correlated with risk perception of vaccines. These conclusions are reinforced by results from a survey question that tests the extent to which such cultural predispositions map onto the myths of nature hypothesized by CT and by a survey experiment that tests how cultural commitments predict perceived risks from a controversial pipeline.
@article{kissRegionIdeologyCultural2020,
title = {Beyond {{Region}} and {{Ideology}}: {{Cultural Theory}} and {{Risk Perception}} in {{Canada}}},
author = {Simon Kiss and Erick Lachapelle and Eric Montpetit},
volume = {53},
number = {2},
doi = {10.1017/S0008423920000177},
year = {2020},
month = {apr}
}
Andrea Perrella, Simon Kiss & Barry J. Kay
Canadian Political Science Review
Canadian Political Science Review
Public Opinion
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Ontario’s general election on June 7, 2018, brought the Progressive Conservative party to government for the first time in the 21st Century. The PCs’ victory over the incumbent Liberals, however, reached this point despite much turmoil. Months before the election the party faced a crisis when its leader, Patrick Brown, resigned amid a scandal. The PC party hastily organized a leadership election that put Doug Ford at the helm, who then led the party to victory. The following election review traces these steps and looks at some dynamics that contributed to both the PC leadership vote and the overall result of the election. The PC leadership election is analyzed, providing evidence that Ford’s rise may reflect some of the populist sentiment that has gripped other democracies. The analysis then turns to the general election, focusing on media coverage and issue salience, particularly as they relate to the party leaders. Survey data are examined to build some explanatory vote-choice models, which shows that voters in the general election appeared less moved by populism than a desire to punish the Liberals.
@article{perrellaConservativePopulismUnpopular2020,
title = {Conservative Populism, or Unpopular Liberalism? {{Review}} of the 2018 {{Ontario Provincial Election}}},
author = {Andrea Perrella and Simon Kiss and Barry J. Kay},
volume = {14},
number = {1},
pages = {118--146},
url = {http://ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/cpsr/article/view/1790},
year = {2020},
month = {nov},
note = {Last visited on 02/22/2024}
}
Simon J. Kiss, Andrea Perrella & Zachary Spicer
Journal of Urban Affairs
Journal of Urban Affairs
Public Opinion
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@article{kissRightwingPopulismMetropolis2020,
title = {Right-Wing Populism in a Metropolis: {{Personal}} Financial Stress, Conservative Attitudes, and {{Rob Ford}}’s {{Toronto}}},
author = {Simon J. Kiss and Andrea Perrella and Zachary Spicer},
volume = {42},
number = {7},
pages = {1028--1046},
doi = {10.1080/07352166.2019.1657021},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07352166.2019.1657021},
year = {2020},
month = {oct},
note = {Last visited on 07/15/2025}
}
Simon Kiss & Erick Lachapelle
Environmental Politics
Environmental Politics
Public Opinion
Risk
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@article{kissOppositionCarbonPricing2019,
title = {Opposition to {{Carbon Pricing}} and {{Right-Wing Populism}}: {{Ontario}}'s 2018 {{General Election}}},
author = {Simon Kiss and Erick Lachapelle},
doi = {10.1080/09644016.2019.1608659},
year = {2019},
month = {apr}
}
Erick Lachapelle, Simon Kiss & Éric Montpetit
Extractive Industries and Society
Extractive Industries and Society
Public Opinion
Risk
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New applications of hydraulic fracturing (HF) methods to release natural gas from shale deposits have emerged as a hotly contested political issue. Consequently, researchers commonly seek to identify factors shaping public perceptions of this technology. While research conducted in North America has focused primarily on the United States, this paper contributes to a growing body of work examining Canadian perceptions toward HF. We build on the existing regionally-focused literature on public perceptions of HF in Canada with an analysis of data collected from a nationally-representative (n = 2012) survey of attitudes toward hydraulic fracturing administered to the adult Canadian population in 2016. We find that an individual’s cultural biases are strong predictors of their attitudes toward hydraulic fracturing, and that these effects are moderated by levels of issue familiarity. Analysis of an embedded survey experiment further reveals that attitudes in Canada are somewhat affected by cues regarding the developer’s status (i.e. whether a Canadian, American or government-owned corporation), and that a nationalist bias is especially prominent among people with hierarchical predispositions. We further find that familiarity with hydraulic fracturing is associated with significantly less support, and that this relationship is moderated by a respondent’s region of residence. We discuss these findings in light of the existing literature and outline areas for future research.
@article{lachapellePublicPerceptionsHydraulic2018,
title = {Public {{Perceptions}} of {{Hydraulic Fracturing}} ({{Fracking}}) in {{Canada}}: {{Corporate Ownership}}, {{Issue Familiarity}}, and {{Cultural Bias}}},
author = {Erick Lachapelle and Simon Kiss and {\a'E}ric Montpetit},
volume = {5},
number = {4},
doi = {10.1016/j.exis.2018.07.003},
year = {2018},
month = {sep}
}
Éric Montpetit, Erick Lachapelle & Simon Kiss
IRPP Ideas, Analysis, Debate
IRPP Ideas, Analysis, Debate
Public Opinion
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Federations have to strike a delicate balance between unity and regional diversity. In the Canadian case, the highly decentralized nature of the federal system enables the provinces and regions to exercise considerable autonomy. In this context, policy disagreements have often been interpreted through the prism of regionalism. Some observers of Canadian politics have expressed concerns that this amplifies disagreement and could undermine the legitimacy of national policies and institutions.
@article{montpetitDoesCanadianFederalism2017,
title = {Does {{Canadian Federalism Amplify Policy Disagreements}}?},
author = {{\a'E}ric Montpetit and Erick Lachapelle and Simon Kiss},
volume = {65},
url = {https://irpp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/study-no65.pdf},
year = {2017},
month = {sep}
}
Andrea ML Perrella, Simon Kiss & Barry J. Kay
Canadian Political Science Review
Canadian Political Science Review
Public Opinion
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The 2014 general election in Ontario was the third straight time when the opposition Progressive Conservative party was poised to win, only to find itself returned to the opposition benches. Part of the incumbent Liberal party’s victory certainly can be attributed to strategic choices of the party, positioning itself closer to where voters wanted them to be. However, there is also a case to be made that the PCs squandered their chance to form government. The following article walks through some of the key points of the campaign, and the context within which it was held.
@article{perrellaTriplePlayOntario2017,
title = {Triple {{Play}}: {{The Ontario}} 2014 {{General Election}}},
author = {Andrea ML Perrella and Simon Kiss and Barry J. Kay},
volume = {11},
number = {1},
pages = {157--181},
url = {http://ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/cpsr/article/view/1461},
year = {2017},
note = {Last visited on 10/10/2024}
}
Andrea ML Perrella & Simon Kiss
Canadian Journal of Public Health
Canadian Journal of Public Health
Public Opinion
Risk
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Objectives: Increasingly, support for water fluoridation has come under attack. We seek an explanation, focusing on the case of Waterloo, Ontario, where a 2010 referendum overturned its water fluoridation program. In particular, we test whether individuals perceive the risks of water fluoridation based not on ‘hard’ scientific evidence but on heuristics and cultural norms. Methods: A sample of 376 residents in Waterloo were surveyed in June 2012 using random digit dialing. We use factor analysis, OLS regression, as well as t-tests to evaluate a survey experiment to test the credibility hypothesis. Results: Perceptions of fluoride as a risk are lower among those who perceive fluoride’s benefits (B = .473, p {$<$} 0.001) and those whose cultural view is ‘egalitarian’ (B = .156, p {$<$} 0.05). The experiment shows a lower level of perception of fluoride’s benefits among respondents who are told that water fluoridation is opposed by a national advocacy group (Group A) compared to those who are told that the government and the World Health Organization support fluoridation (Group B) (t = 1.6547, p {$<$} 0.05), as well as compared to the control group (t = 1.8913, p {$<$} 0.05). There is no difference between Group B and the control, possibly because people’s already general support for fluoridation is less prone to change when told that other public organizations also support fluoridation. Conclusion: Public health officials should take into account cultural norms and perceptions when individuals in a community appear to rise up against water fluoridation, with implications for other public health controversies.
@article{perrellaRiskPerceptionPsychological2015,
title = {Risk {{Perception}}, {{Psychological Heuristics}} and the {{Water Fluoridation Controversy}}},
author = {Andrea ML Perrella and Simon Kiss},
volume = {106},
number = {4},
pages = {e197-e203},
doi = {10.17269/cjph.106.4828},
year = {2015},
month = {may}
}
Simon Kiss, Andrea Perrella & Barry Kay
Canadian Political Science Review
Canadian Political Science Review
Public Opinion
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We review the 2011 Ontario general election, which reduced the incumbent Liberal party to a minority government. We place attention on campaign dynamics and issue salience.
@article{kissHowWinLose2014,
title = {How to {{Win}} and {{Lose}} an {{Election}}: {{Campaign Dynamics}} of the 2011 {{Ontario Election}}},
author = {Simon Kiss and Andrea Perrella and Barry Kay},
volume = {8},
number = {1},
doi = {10.24124/c677/2014497},
year = {2014},
month = {aug}
}