Social Democracy and Class Voting

Social Democracy
Public Opinion

I am currently on a long-term research project with Prof. Peter Graefe of McMaster University examining the transformation of the NDP under Jack Layton. We’re investigating the way in which changes in the electoral and financing rules for political parties contributed to a “new” New Democratic Party. This builds on earlier research I’ve conducted examining the politics of the New Politics Initiative in the NDP in 1999-2000.

I also have a strong interest in the way that social class affects public opinion in the post-industrial societies. I am interested in the interplay of income, status, levels of education and field of study to create political preferences for and against redistribution and environmental protection. I woud like to know if the increasing role played by educated professionals will weaken social democratic parties’ capacity to push for redistribution.

Publications

Matthew Polacko, Peter Graefe & Simon Kiss
Perspectives
Social Democracy
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@article{polackoChangingClassBasis2026, title = {The {{Changing Class Basis}} of {{Canadian}} and {{Social Democratic Futures}}}, author = {Matthew Polacko and Peter Graefe and Simon Kiss}, number = {5}, url = {https://perspectivesjournal.ca/changing-class-socdem-future/}, year = {2026}, month = {jan}, note = {Last visited on 01/27/2026} }
Matthew Polacko, Peter Graefe & Simon Kiss
Canadian Review of Sociology = Revue Canadienne De Sociologie
Public Opinion Social Democracy
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According to the budget-maximizing bureaucrat model, public sector employees should rationally seek to increase government budgets to increase their own power. In contrast to most advanced democracies, class and sectoral voting has largely been neglected in Canada. The ideological and voting preferences of the public sector has been unexamined since the 1980s. Using the Canadian Election Study (1968–2019), we revisit and expand on this literature. We find that the public sector holds more economically leftist attitudes than the public and that a sectoral cleavage has emerged, with public sector employees increasingly supporting the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP). We also find that social class moderates these two relationships, as professionals and managers in the public sector are significantly more likely to vote for the NDP and hold more leftist economic attitudes than their counterparts in both the private sector, and the routine non-manual and working class in the public sector.
@article{polackoRevisitingSectoralCleavage2025, title = {Revisiting the {{Sectoral Cleavage}} in {{Canada}}: {{Evidence From}} the {{Canadian Election Studies}}}, author = {Matthew Polacko and Peter Graefe and Simon Kiss}, doi = {10.1111/cars.70014}, year = {2025}, month = {aug} }
Matthew Polacko, Peter Graefe & Simon Kiss
Social Science Quarterly
Public Opinion Social Democracy
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The recent success of far-right populism has led to a wave of public attention to its causes. Drawing on novel survey items from the Canadian Election Study, we investigate how economic insecurity, mediated by immigration and feminist attitudes, affects voting behavior. While economic distress has been linked to far-right voting in Europe, we find support that subjective measures of economic distress are significantly associated with voting for the Right in Canada, when interacting with immigration and feminist attitudes. However, the association only holds for men. The findings suggest that Canada, despite its comparatively weak nativist cleavage, is not immune to tensions arising from globalization and economic insecurity.
@article{polackoSubjectiveEconomicInsecurity2024, title = {Subjective {{Economic Insecurity}} and {{Attitudes Toward Immigration}} and {{Feminists Among Voters}} on the {{Right}} in {{Canada}}}, author = {Matthew Polacko and Peter Graefe and Simon Kiss}, volume = {105}, number = {2}, pages = {281--295}, doi = {10.1111/ssqu.13336}, url = {https://sjkiss.github.io/publication/subjective_economic_insecurity/subjective_economic_insecurity.pdf}, year = {2024}, month = {jan}, note = {Last visited on 03/28/2024} }
Simon Kiss, Peter Graefe & Matt Polacko
Electoral Studies
Public Opinion Social Democracy
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Profound changes in the nature of class cleavages in advanced capitalist economies have been documented in recent years. Some have posited that the increasingly educated nature of left electorates has weakened impulses for redistribution. In contrast to most advanced democracies, class voting has largely been neglected in Canada, as it has traditionally been viewed as being comparatively weak in the face of strong linguistic, regional, and religious identities. Using the entire series of the Canadian Election Study (1965–2019) we examine the education and income political divides in Canada. We find strong support for a divergence between the effect that income and education have on party voting, as people with high incomes continue to vote for the right, while people with higher levels of education have shifted significantly to the left. However, we also find a strengthening income cleavage, whereby lower-income individuals are increasingly supporting the social democratic New Democratic Party, with redistribution a key driver. The findings reveal that Canada, despite a strengthening class cleavage, largely fits the mould of a multi-elite party system. However, it does so in a distinct fashion from the party systems previously examined in the cleavage literature.
@article{kissEducationIncomeVoting2023, title = {The {{Education And Income Voting Divides In Canada And Their Consequences For Redistributive Politics}}}, author = {Simon Kiss and Peter Graefe and Matt Polacko}, volume = {85}, doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102648}, year = {2023}, month = {oct} }
Matthew Polacko, Simon Kiss & Peter Graefe
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique
Public Opinion Social Democracy
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Much attention has been paid to the changing class cleavage that structured political conflict in the twentieth century. In contrast to most advanced democracies, class voting has traditionally been weak in Canada. Using the entire series of the Canadian Election Study (1965–2019), we find the historic pattern of working-class voting for the New Democratic Party (NDP) held outside of Quebec in recent elections, before suddenly falling off in 2019. Starting in 2004, we find a clear and distinct trend where the working class has increased its support for the Conservatives. Although greater partisan sorting is occurring over the economy, cultural issues such as moral traditionalism and anti-immigration are now significant drivers of working-class Conservative support. The findings carry important implications for class-party relationships and reveal that Canada, despite its comparatively weak nativist cleavage, is not immune from the tensions social democratic parties have recently experienced in maintaining cross-class coalitions amid socio-economic structural changes. , Résumé On a accordé beaucoup d'attention à l'évolution du clivage de classe qui a structuré les conflits politiques au cours du vingtième siècle. Contrairement à la plupart des démocraties avancées, le vote de classe a traditionnellement été faible au Canada. En utilisant la série complète de l'Étude sur l'élection canadienne (1965-2019), nous trouvons le modèle historique du vote de la classe ouvrière pour le NPD, qui s'est maintenu en dehors du Québec lors des dernières élections, avant de chuter soudainement en 2019. À partir de 2004, nous trouvons une tendance claire et distincte dans laquelle la classe ouvrière a augmenté son soutien aux conservateurs. Bien qu'un plus grand tri partisan se produise sur l'économie, les questions culturelles telles que le traditionalisme moral et l'anti-immigration sont maintenant des moteurs importants du soutien de la classe ouvrière au Parti conservateur. Les résultats ont des implications importantes pour les relations entre les classes et les partis et révèlent que le Canada, malgré son clivage nativiste relativement faible, n'est pas à l'abri des tensions que les partis sociaux-démocrates ont récemment connues pour maintenir des coalitions interclasses dans un contexte de changements structurels socio-économiques.
@article{polackoChangingNatureClass2022, title = {The {{Changing Nature}} of {{Class Voting}} in {{Canada}}, 1965–2019}, author = {Matthew Polacko and Simon Kiss and Peter Graefe}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, pages = {663--686}, doi = {10.1017/S0008423922000439}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-science-politique/article/changing-nature-of-class-voting-in-canada-19652019/FA5E431D849C30B9E531EC046A6107B6}, year = {2022}, month = {sep}, note = {Last visited on 02/25/2025} }

References

Kiss, Simon. 2013. “Legislation by Agenda-Setting: Assessing the Media’s Role in the Regulation of Bisphenol A in the U.S. States.” Mass Communication and Society 16 (5): 687–712. https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2013.768345.
Kiss, Simon. 2014a. “Responding to the ’New Public’: The Arrival of Strategic Communications and Managed Participation in Alberta.” Canadian Public Administration 57 (1): 26–48. https://doi.org/10.1111/capa.12053.
Kiss, Simon. 2014b. “Where Did All The Baby Bottles Go? Risk Perception, Interest Groups, Media Coverage and Institutional Imperatives in Canada’s Regulation of Bisphenol A.” Canadian Journal of Political Science / Revue Canadienne de Science Politique 47 (4): 741–65. https://www.jstor.org/stable/43298446.
Kiss, Simon, Peter Graefe, and Matt Polacko. 2023. “The Education And Income Voting Divides In Canada And Their Consequences For Redistributive Politics.” Electoral Studies 85 (October). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102648.
Kiss, Simon, and Erick Lachapelle. 2019. “Opposition to Carbon Pricing and Right-Wing Populism: Ontario’s 2018 General Election.” Environmental Politics, ahead of print, April 29. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2019.1608659.
Kiss, Simon, Erick Lachapelle, and Eric Montpetit. 2020. “Beyond Region and Ideology: Cultural Theory and Risk Perception in Canada.” Canadian Journal of Political Science / Revue Canadienne de Science Politique 53 (2). https://doi.org/doi:10.1017/S0008423920000177.
Kiss, Simon, Andrea Perrella, and Barry Kay. 2014. “How to Win and Lose an Election: Campaign Dynamics of the 2011 Ontario Election.” Canadian Political Science Review 8 (1). https://doi.org/10.24124/c677/2014497.
Kiss, Simon, Karly Rath, and Andrea Perrella. 2018. “Balanced Journalism Amplifies Minority Voices: A Case Study of a Fluoridation Plebiscite.” Canadian Journal of Communication 43 (4). https://doi.org/10.22230/cjc.2018v43n4a3355.
Lachapelle, Erick, Simon Kiss, and Éric Montpetit. 2018. “Public Perceptions of Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking) in Canada: Corporate Ownership, Issue Familiarity, and Cultural Bias.” Extractive Industries and Society 5 (4). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2018.07.003.
Perrella, Andrea ML, and Simon Kiss. 2015. “Risk Perception, Psychological Heuristics and the Water Fluoridation Controversy.” Canadian Journal of Public Health 106 (4): e197–203. https://doi.org/10.17269/cjph.106.4828.
Perrella, Andrea ML, Simon Kiss, and Barry J. Kay. 2017. “Triple Play: The Ontario 2014 General Election.” Canadian Political Science Review 11 (1): 157–81. http://ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/cpsr/article/view/1461.
Perrella, Andrea, Simon Kiss, and Barry J. Kay. 2020. “Conservative Populism, or Unpopular Liberalism? Review of the 2018 Ontario Provincial Election.” Canadian Political Science Review 14 (1): 118–46. http://ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/cpsr/article/view/1790.
Polacko, Matthew, Peter Graefe, and Simon Kiss. 2024. “Subjective Economic Insecurity and Attitudes Toward Immigration and Feminists Among Voters on the Right in Canada.” Social Science Quarterly 105 (2): 281–95. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.13336.
Polacko, Matthew, Peter Graefe, and Simon Kiss. 2025. “Revisiting the Sectoral Cleavage in Canada: Evidence From the Canadian Election Studies.” Canadian Review of Sociology = Revue Canadienne De Sociologie, ahead of print, August 18. https://doi.org/10.1111/cars.70014.
Polacko, Matthew, Peter Graefe, and Simon Kiss. 2026. “The Changing Class Basis of Canadian and Social Democratic Futures.” Perspectives, no. 5 (January). https://perspectivesjournal.ca/changing-class-socdem-future/.
Polacko, Matthew, Simon Kiss, and Peter Graefe. 2022. “The Changing Nature of Class Voting in Canada, 1965–2019.” Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue Canadienne de Science Politique 55 (3): 663–86. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423922000439.
Wootten, George W., and Simon J. Kiss. 2019. “The Ambiguous Definition of Open Government: Parliamentarians, Journalists and Bloggers Define Open Government In Accordance With Their Interests.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 52 (3): 479–99. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423918000446.